China's role in world affairs
International Affairs
By R.M. Austin Mr Austin is a former Guyana Ambassador to the People's Republic of China
Stabroek News
April 26, 2007
China has always been the largest economy in the world. It was so from 1600 to the 19th Century when it produced more than 30% of global economic output. But beginning with the period under Emperor Quianlong China turned it back on the world and the technological revolution which was to radically change the major western states and plant the seeds of their long dominance of global politics. The result was that China became vulnerable to foreign invasion and the aggression of western powers. This state of affairs came to an end with the triumph of the Communist Party in 1949 and the ushering in of communist rule. We now know that, contrary to the popular view, the economy also grew in the pre-1978 period at 6% per year. But it was in the post 1978 period, as a result of the reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping and other like-minded reformers, which led to the spectacular growth in the economy. The Middle Kingdom has grown at a rate of 10% annually for the last two decades, lifted more than 300 million people out of poverty, assumed the position of the fourth largest economy, and become the engine for impressive growth in Asia. Indeed, Asia, led by China, is replacing or has replaced the Atlantic as the center of global economic development. The Asian Century beckons.
China now sits on about a trillion dollars in foreign reserves and is poised to continue the growth which has been the economic story of the 20th Century. China's economic success has inevitably translated into diplomatic authority, military strength and global leadership. The question is whether the rise of China will destabilize the existing international system or whether it will concert with the other leading great powers to produce a stable international system in which it can pursue its long term goals. Never has the rise of a nation been the subject of such scrutiny as to its likely impact on the future of the international system.
As a former diplomatic envoy to China I was always impressed by the way this large country with its ancient culture has meditated deeply on critical issues before turning the results of such meditation into public and international policy. China has been studying the implications of its rise as a great power. The information is available to all peoples and nations that Beijing has conducted a study of the rise of all of the previous leading powers such as Portugal and Germany in a well known program on Chinese television. What has been emphasised in these programs is the peaceful aspect of the rise of these nations. The politicians and diplomats in Beijing understand that its emergence as a great power should not disturb the equilibrium of the Asian region or international system as this would be inimical to China's long term economic growth. Chinese diplomacy over the last several years has therefore been geared towards the lower of tensions in specific areas in Asia and the rest of the world. Aided by the forces of globalisation which are increasingly compelling Asian states to work closely together, China has reached out to most of the important countries in the Asian region. Accordingly, Beijing has cultivated good relations with South Korea, Vietnam and recently it has sought to promote good relations with Japan. China has also mended fences with the Soviet Union and has embarked on a policy of friendly relations with India. Australia has not been left out of this equation. It has been the beneficiary of substantial investments in its mining sector. In the words of the economist survey of China "Relatively stable relations with its neighbours act as protection against volatility in relations with the United States - particularly as that super power is absent from many of the (regional) groupings. China's stock and influence is undeniably on the rise." Moreover, Beijing has been working through the Asian multilateral agencies such as ASEAN to promote economic and political cooperation.
The critical diplomatic relationship for China is that with the United States. In fact the two nations are locked in a mutual and delicate economic embrace from which both nations cannot extract itself and which will determine what will happen in the future. Let us look at the facts. China is running a massive trade surplus to the United States of some two hundred billion US dollars. China buys back significant portions of America's debt and therefore keeps that nation afloat. The intricate relationship between China and the United States was dramatically demonstrated recently when a 9% decline on the Chinese stock market earlier this year provoked a downward spiral in stocks on Wall Street. The management of this relationship will also be critical to its evolution. Pressures are building in the United States for protectionist measures to be taken against China for keeping its currency at a low rate while increasingly there are muted but pointed voices emerging from Beijing that it will have to accumulate more foreign reserves in a currency other than a US dollar. In respect of the latter possibility Mike Whitney, a noted US commentator, has offered this opinion: "If China diversifies, then the dollar will fall and the after shocks will ripple through markets across the world."
All these developments have reinforced China's strength as the major international players. No major decision in the international economic system whether it has to do with the WTO or the architecture of modern economic relations cannot be taken without the consultation and participation of China. Increasingly China is invited to be a part of the annual discussions of the group of 8, the grouping of the so-called rich developed countries. And because China is such an important economic player, it has been able to improve and strengthen ties with the countries of Asia, Latin America and Africa. In the case of the latter continent it has made dramatic moves to improve ties with African states in order to have access to needed energy resources to foster its continued economic development. It is particularly striking that in respect of the tragedy in Darfur Sudan looked to China and not to the West as to how it should proceed diplomatically. Equally, China was central to the negotiations between North Korea and the 6 other nations, including the United States, to persuade Pyongyang to shut down its nuclear infrastructure for making atomic weapons. In the Middle East, China is increasingly emerging as an important player given its ties to Tehran and Damascus. The European Union now regards Beijing as a major actor in international relations and sought to engage it in a variety of political and economic measures. In Latin America, China has cultivated important ties with the large states such as Venezuela and Brazil. These relations have improved in both economic and political terms. The Caribbean has not been left out of China's global diplomatic policies and diplomats from Beijing have been busy cementing ties with the countries of the Caribbean Community.
All this does not mean that China's future is not clouded by both internal and external developments. Internally, Beijing has been force to cope with large sections of the population which have not benefited from its spectacular economic performance. As a result the Communist Party of China (CPC), President Hu Jintao, Prime Minister Wen Jiabo, have adumbrated policies to close the gap between the rich and poor in order to promote harmony in the society. China also faces major challenges from the environment. Most Chinese cities are polluted and the Government has been doing its best to get pollution as well as environmental degradation under control. In political terms, the question remains whether China can continue its economic development without triggering forces which will demand greater democratic space in its political system. Most observers believe that this will happen sometime in the future. It is not that China is unaware of the need for some form of democracy as it has experimented with this political system at the village level.
The shape of the emerging international system may not assume definite shape until China overtakes the American economy in 2025 as most international observers expect. In the meantime China is pushing hard for a reform of the United Nations and has sought to embed such principles in the international affairs of states and the democratization of international relations. But it has not had its own way. Increasingly, United States has become weary of China especially with regard to its military development. Dick Cheney, the American Vice-President, stated bluntly in Singapore recently that the growth of the Chinese military budget is at variance with its declared policy of its peaceful rise as a nation. And when China recently destroyed one of its aging satellites by shooting it down with pin point precision, alarm bells rang in the Pentagon. Moreover, both the United States and China are in a diplomatic pas de deux over Taiwan. This could yet be a flash point triggering adversarial relations between these two major powers. Not to be forgotten is that despite its charm offensive in Asia several major Asian states, including those of the ASEAN grouping, and such states as Japan and Taiwan want the United States remain in the region as a counter balance to China. Singapore recently signed an agreement giving American forces greater access to its ports while Indonesia and Vietnam are building important alliances with the United States. China will play a major role in shaping the international relation system in the 21st Century but how it does so is critical to the outcome. In a recent speech the former American Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, who was responsible along with President Nixon for the opening to China in 1971, stated, as reported by Reuters, that "China's rise as a global power is inevitable and could lead to conflict unless Beijing and Washington can cooperate to create a new global order."