WIPING THE TEARS FROM ALL FACES
PERSPECTIVES
By Prem Misir
Guyana Chronicle
February 12, 2007

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The Guyana economy has been rebounding since 2005. The pace may be slow, but there were adverse shocks resulting from the floods of 2005 and 2006, the high oil prices that followed, the economic stranglehold that the World Trade Organization (WTO) has on poor, small, and vulnerable economies, the liberalization of the European sugar regime with sugar price cuts, general erosion of trade preferences, constant migration of skilled professionals, the huge inherited external US$2.1B debt (now under US$900M), among other types of adverse shock. In the early post-1992 years, balancing debt service and meeting the needs of the poor was a great challenge.

To surmount this adversity, the Government of Guyana successfully mobilized considerable debt relief. At the Cochabamba Summit, President Bharrat Jagdeo secured the South American Community of Nations’ (SACN) endorsement of a resolution asking for 100 percent debt relief of Guyana’s stock of debt with December 2004 as the cut-off point, effective from January 2007. Effective July 1, 2006, the World Bank cancelled the International Development Association debt of Guyana of US$133M and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) debt of Guyana of US$189M. In 2003, Guyana received US$585M under the Enhanced HIPC Initiative. Debt relief enables services to be channeled into programs to help the poor to receive better education, better health services, more access to clean water, and more opportunities to escape poverty.

Then there is the usual sham politicking, the intent being to retard development, where a lot has been made of the closure of businesses and lack of an adequate level of foreign direct investments. But very little attention is given to the number of new businesses operating and the number of existing businesses expanding. Table 1 speaks to investments.

Table 1: Investments

Investment
2004
2005
Local
42
91

Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)

33
38
Joint Venture
0 10
Total
75
139
Source: GO-Invest

FDIs totaled US$2.6M in the 1982-1991 years. Investments in 2004 and 2005 alone totaled US$46, 780,00M and US$69.2M, producing 1,686 and 4,145 jobs, respectively for those years.

And, indeed, exports to the Caribbean look promising. Review Table 2. Increased exports help to reduce the current account deficit.

Table 2: Exports

Country
G$
G$
G$
2002
2003
2004
Antigua
410M
1.3B
939M
Barbados
2.5B
2.3B
4.0B
Suriname
1.2B
1.0B
713M
Trinidad
4.3b
4.7B
7.4B
St. Lucia
580M
411M
707M
Total
8.9B
9.8B
13.8B
Source: GO-Invest

Significant economic indicators highlighting the wealth of a nation show some positive signs in Guyana; these positive indicators generally get lost in the scramble to demonstrate negatives, as depicted in the following.

Some of these are:
* Pillars of macroeconomic stability: Inflation rate (4.2% compared to 90% in 1991); interest rate – average lending (12% compared to over 30% in 1992); exchange rate ($202.63 with minimal fluctuation over the last few years); balance of payments’ status (surplus of US$45M from US$8.1M in 2005)

* Per Capita income: US$231 (1991); US$1,000 (2006); Table 3 shows a consistent increase per capita through 2004, and this trend has continued to this day.

Table 3: GNI Per Capita

Source: World Bank
* Minimum Wage/Salary: total increase is 886% from 1992 through 2005; US$22 (1992) and US$124 (2005)

* Annual tax threshold increased from $48,000 (US$380) in 1992 to $336,000 (US$1,680) in 2007, effectively removing 36,000 from the tax net for both 2006 and 2007.

Clearly, with erosion of trade preferences and other adverse shocks, important sectors of the economy have to be diversified to maintain their competitiveness if we are to see medium-term growth. The sugar, mining, and the forestry sectors are being diversified, and these sectors could become competitive. National competitiveness once solidified will determine productivity; and increased productivity will enhance investment returns, leading to greater growth rates for the economy; this is not merely economic growth. And a key factor in all of this is macroeconomic stability that underlies competitiveness. Guyana has its macroeconomic fundamentals in place. But macroeconomic fundamentals are not enough. Education and training and the protection of property rights are other factors, among others, affecting productivity.

Professor Xavier Sala-i-Martin developed the Global Competitiveness Index for the World Economic Forum, providing us with factors strategic to raising the level of productivity and competitiveness, and categorizes them into the following nine pillars: Institutions; Infrastructure; Macroeconomy; Health and primary education; Higher education and training; Market efficiency; Technological readiness; Business sophistication; and Innovation.

Guyana, with its strategies of diversification and competitiveness, carries a critical blueprint, on course to tearing away shocks, wiping the tears from the faces of all, to create a better quality of life.

When the tears are gone, then we would have arrived as a nation.