The final figures are out. The economy shrank by 0.5% last year and this was mainly attributable to a decline in sugar production from 230 000 tonnes to 203 000 tonnes. Gold output was lower, rice had a better year and so did bauxite. The traditional sectors continue to be the lifeline of the economy and agriculture continues to dominate the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

This negative outturn continues the trend of basically no growth in the economy since 1998, an alarming situation if Guyana is to reduce its poverty levels and ready its industries to face the onslaught of competition.

The general feeling is that the government is busy outing fires, leaving little room for it to be creative in policies to stimulate the economy. The private sector is cautious about new investments because while there is political calm, there is no great sense that either of the two main parties is serious about the dialogue process and the sniping continues. This leaves a lingering fear that at any moment, the political tensions can return.

The budget is to be presented before the end of this month but there is little excitement about the prospect because the last few budgets have been silent on any stimulus package. And as one international financial institution official indicated to this writer, a stimulus package is not just about fiscal incentives. It requires a vision of using what is available to transform the potential at hand. And that seems to be sadly lacking.

The government has a good track record at implementing policies directed by the IMF/World Bank, albeit with some slippages and the perception that many of the changes are being implemented grudgingly. However, it has failed to come up on its own with a stimulus to break the economy from the mould of no growth since 1998.

The pre-1998 growth levels which averaged six per cent were largely a result of investments made in the PNC government's life such as Omai and Barama. The one sizeable investment which the government could have boasted about was UNAMCO, which has never been able to get off the ground because of various other constraints.

A number of other investments have been made but private investment averaged US$53M per year between 1991-2002 or 7.5% of GDP. Private investment in the 1992-4 periods was 30% of GDP but slumped to 12% in 1997 and is now down to 7.4%. The investments have mainly been in the mining sector, the information technology sector, and the food processing, wood and services sectors.

For Guyana to return to the sustainable growth path, it needs to attract much more investments and to attract more investments, there is first of all the need for a conducive political climate.

It is also important to get a handle on the crime situation. But above all the government has to take the next steps to define clearly its vision for where it would like the economy to be, how it will get it there and to facilitate the private sector to take it there. Economic policy issues cannot be relegated to autopilot. It calls for a vision and constant revision.

To get the private sector on the wagon will require levelling the playing field and being an open, transparent and honest facilitator, sending clear, not ambiguous signals.

The government needs to get its act together and has to do so now. The opposition PNC has to send a clear signal of its intentions to bolster the confidence level of the private sector. And more importantly, the private sector has to be proactive and get on the ball. Time waits on no one.