The recent elections in Trinidad and Tobago are of interest to Guyanese for several reasons, quite apart from the fact that it is a sister Caricom member state.
In the first place, the final results were known within about eight hours of the polls closing and though there are to be one or two recounts in constituencies where the results were very close they were quickly accepted. The nightmare that elections have become in Guyana are due to the deliberate and calculated subversion of the process from l967 to l985 which left behind it a legacy of disorder and distrust that to this day has not been fully rectified. There is nothing particularly complex about holding elections, the problems arise because of malicious interventions of one kind or another. Where there is goodwill and reasonable competence it’s a piece of cake really.
Having an equal number of seats, 36, is not a good idea as it can quite easily lead to a tie (it almost did again) and the resultant gridlock and it must be hoped that over the next five years the Elections and Boundaries Commission, with the backing of the parties, will do some reconfiguring and create an extra constituency.
But perhaps the most significant event, as pointed out by Guyanese pollster Vishnu Bisram in a letter in the Sunday Stabroek, is that perhaps as much as l0% of the Indian vote crossed over from Mr Panday’s UNC to Mr Manning’s PNM. This won the PNM a significantly higher total vote and clearly won them the crucial marginal constituencies and the elections. Mr Bisram attributes this crossover to the failure of Mr Panday to have a rapprochement with his former deputy, Ramesh Maharaj, and the failure of Mr Panday to purge the UNC of MPs accused of fraud and corruption. Whether he is right or not, the significance of the crossover is surely that, at least in Trinidad, some part of the ethnic vote can be shifted, it is not irrevocably committed to the current tribal leader. One would have to say that this is a significant sign of hope for Caribbean democracy and for the future of Trinidad and Tobago.
Trinidad and Tobago is all set for prosperity given its high reserves of oil and natural gas and investments in those resources that are on stream. One analyst has calculated that government revenues could quadruple by 2005 if all the projects on the drawing board become operational. The only thing that can disturb this scenario is political instability. Let us hope this is no longer on the cards.
It is a golden opportunity for Mr Manning to spend those considerable revenues wisely, with some emphasis on the development of academic and technical education to equip Trinidadians to run the country efficiently and to operate with confidence in the competitive global economy. It also allows him to play a leading role in Caricom and the gesture he has already made of offering cheaper oil to some Caricom member states must be welcomed in that context. With good government Trinidad and Tobago could be well on the way to becoming the Caribbean tiger, setting the pace for its sister states.