Fraud in the USA: The limits of presidential intervention Guyana and the Wider World
By Dr Clive Thomas
Stabroek News
July 28, 2002

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Economic effects

Last week’s article ended at a point where we were identifying some of the wider effects of the collapse of the US stock market. We drew attention to the reduced wealth and the loss of consumer confidence, which had resulted. This week we begin by noting two important economic effects. One of these is the fiscal effect.

The combination of increased national security spending for the ‘War on Terror’ and revenue shortfalls has led to the projection that the Federal Government would move from a fiscal surplus of $127 billion last year, to a fiscal deficit of $165 billion this year. The main causes of the revenue shortfall are 1) the weak US economy 2) the cost of Bush’s tax cuts last year and 3) a number of stock market related falls in revenue. The weak economy has reduced personal and corporate taxes, while the stock market decline has reduced revenue from capital gains as well as taxable income from such sources as mutual funds distributions, stock options, and earned interest.

This fiscal reversal is a major setback as it took years to build a strong bipartisan consensus in favour of balanced budgets in the USA. Of note at the recent meeting of state governors held in Boise, Idaho, 45 states acknowledged that they were facing serious fiscal problems because of the stock market crisis.

The other economic consequence of note is the slide in the value of the US currency. It is not widely known but the US gets about 70 per cent of global savings, mainly because it is the world’s most secure economy. This inflow has been crucial to maintaining the stability of the US dollar in the highly competitive global foreign currency markets as well as financing investments in the US. With the decline in US stock market and its attendant uncertainties, this inflow of savings has been reduced, while there have been outflows to other areas, including Europe. The latter has strengthened the Euro, which at the time of writing was trading above parity with the US dollar.

Political fallout

As it might be expected, this unprecedented revelation of scams, financial irregularities, and fraud among the highest echelons of US business has had serious political fallout on the incumbent Republican Party, under whose watch the daily parade of brigandage is occurring. This is somewhat ironical, since the Republican Party is a far stronger ally of big business in the USA than is the Democratic Party. As we saw last week, not only are those who deal on the stock market the immediate victims of this corporate thievery, but also negative spin-off effects to the wider economy, the fiscal balance, the exchange rate, and consumer confidence are already considerable. These have affected the wider global economy threatening both a worldwide stock market crash and a further lengthening of the global recession.

This situation combined with the pressure of Congressional elections due in November this year, forced President Bush to take centre stage in an effort to steer events to a safer shore and away from the looming precipice facing the USA.

On Tuesday, July 9, the President in a much anticipated speech to a gathering at Wall Street called for “a new era of integrity in corporate America.” He urged harsher penalties for investment fraud to put a stop to the mounting scandals that were undermining the trust of Americans in business institutions. As we have noted repeatedly in this series, without trust, capitalist market institutions cannot function efficiently and effectively.

Presidential proposals

Judging from market reactions and media commentary afterwards, while long on rhetoric the President’s speech was short on concrete remedial details. There were about six main proposals. One was to create financial crimes SWAT Team in the Justice Department to go after the crooks. Another was to increase the budget of the Securities and Exchange Commission by $100 million. This agency supervises and regulates US capital markets.

A third proposal was to double the maximum prison term for mail and wire fraud to ten years. The fourth proposal exhorted financial analysts to be “honest advisers” as the crisis revealed the conflict of interests between financial analysts and consultants in the same firm doing business with other companies.

The President charged these analysts not to be salespersons with hidden agendas. He called on chief executive officers to describe and defend their compensation in annual reports to shareholders, including personal loans. Finally, in cases where accounting fraud was proven company officers should forfeit all compensation.

Reactions

By the end of the week the President gave his speech, Friday July 12, all three major financial markets had rapidly declined. The Dow Jones Industrial averages were down by 7.4 per cent. The Standard and Poor 500 index had dropped by 6.8 per cent, and the Nasdaq was down by 5.2 per cent.

This was to be the eighth straight losing week for these three major Wall Street indexes. The rot also spread abroad. Thus, the London stock market plunged to its lowest level in the past five years, losing in the course of that week 93 billion pounds sterling of its value.

To all intents and purposes, the President’s speech did not have the intended effect. This resulted in a shift in political momentum. Presi-dent Bush who had until then enjoyed what US politicians call a ‘lock-step’ approach with Republican Members of Congress, saw that come to an end.

Many Republicans began to push for more radical proposals than the President and in many instances even their Democratic Party counter parts. Members of Congress jockeyed for positions as leading defenders of American consumers and ordinary folk who were being duped and deceived by corporate America. In the frenzy the Senate voted 97 to zero for tougher penalties for corporate crooks than Bush had proposed in his speech.

Presidential miscalculation

The President had miscalculated on at least two counts. First, with Congressional elections due in November, Republicans could not be caught ‘molly coddling’ with corporate crooks at a time when America was hurting badly from their banditry. Second, the US stock market is a complex and multi-layered institution, which harbours rational calculators, rash gamblers, manipulators, and the ignorant.

This institution has outgrown the ability of even the US President to leash it or steer it through mere words, unaccompanied by matching deeds. In the end, the President himself came under direct scrutiny for personally benefiting from loans, which he was now intending to proscribe.

Other senior administrative officials have also had their past ties to corporate ruling chambers put under intense scrutiny as the threat of further scandal emerged.

At present the crisis is not yet over. How it will evolve is by no means certain at this time.

The forthcoming Securities and Exchange Commission’s November deadline for the top 1000 American corporations to have their accounts personally attested to by CEOs and CFOs, may well be the prelude to another round of sordid revelations from corporate America.