Jamaica -- now for violence-free, 'clean' poll Analysis by Rickey Singh
Guyana Chronicle
September 24, 2002

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WITH voting day fixed for Wednesday, October 16, the contesting parties and the electorate of Jamaica are now looking forward to a violence-free and 'clean' election campaign over the next 22 days.

The basis for such a campaign in a Caribbean Community state noted for its very disturbing levels of killings and criminal violence during elections, was laid with a bi-partisan agreement signed during the previous weeks of unofficial campaigning leading up to yesterday's dissolution of Parliament by the Governor General.

The "peace" accord, initiated by representatives of the private sector and civil society, was signed by the leaders of both major parties -- Prime Minister P.J. Patterson's incumbent People's National Party (PNP) and Edward Seaga's Jamaica Labour Party.

It is an agreement that places direct responsibility on parties and contesting candidates for a violence free and 'clean' campaign amid warnings from the leadership against any involvement, financial or otherwise, with suspected narco-traffickers and money launderers. Candidates are also urged to avoid any activity, including use of provocative graffiti and defamatory statements that could contribute to physical conflicts during the campaign.

Jamaica may have none of the current excitement of election campaigning in Trinidad and Tobago, with its mixture of claims and counter-claims of corruption in high places, charges against a former Prime Minister, alleged conspiracy between the ruling party and the controversial Jamaat-al-Muslimeen and a running battle with the Elections and Boundaries Commission.

But Jamaican voters, who officially learnt of the election date as announced by Prime Minister Patterson on Sunday night at a PNP rally, are on heightened alert against political violence that has been a feature of too many elections in their country.

They would be conscious, as the current experience in Trinidad and Tobago is proving, that ideas and issues on proper governance can be sacrificed in an election climate filled with uncertainties and aggravated by the language of abuse and threats.

Bearing the burden of being stigmatised as the so-called "murder capital" in the Caribbean-Latin American region on a per capita basis -- with an average of two killings a day within recent months -- is more than enough.

The picture gets worse when linked to reports that it is also a major transshipment route for illegal drugs to North America and Europe.

Fears of murder and violence in inner cities and other communities spilling over into the election campaign, have moved the contesting parties to establish a code of conduct for themselves and all candidates.

Political Ombudsman for election 2002, Bishop Herro Blair, who also heads a Peace Management Initiative (PMI), has given his expectation for "a most peaceful election".

But, considering the gang violence that had earlier in the week shattered the peace in Central Kingston, leaving two dead and 14 others injured, the Bishop's "expectation" is more of a 'hope'.

Armed criminal elements are known to have caused much horrors at previous elections, with traditional rivals for power -- the PNP and JLP having to share the blame of complicity.

This time around, with the likelihood of this being their election swansong -- whatever the outcome -- both Patterson and Seaga have been placing a special emphasis on a "clean" and violence-free election campaign.

For those familiar with the conduct of previous elections in Jamaica and the level of violence and fears that existed, campaign 2002, must come as a refreshing breeze.

It is a pity that there is no agreed code of ethics for the current election campaign in Trinidad and Tobago, either among the contesting parties or for the role of the electronic media.

That the PNP and JLP, old warring enemies, have come to a matured position, in the national interest, to contest a general election within the framework of a mutually agreed code of conduct, is a welcome legacy of the leadership of Patterson and Seaga in what is regarded as the closing chapter in their long political struggles.

This maturity in leadership has come at a time when, for all the optimism both are projecting in rallying their respective troops, Patterson and Seaga are aware that they are involved in what the pollsters have predicted to be one of the closest battles ever for the reins of power.

The latest Stone Poll, done in August for the 'Jamaica Observer' and released last week, placed the PNP in a virtual 'nose lead' with about 3.4 per cent over the JLP -- PNP 37.8 per cent; JLP 34.4 per cent.

The previous June/July opinion poll had the JLP in a mere 0.4 per cent edge over the PNP -- JLP 27.6; PNP 27.2.

When, however, the margin of error of three per cent is factored in, as well as the category of "don't know" voters that stood at approximately 16 per cent in the June/July survey of voter preferences as well as that for August, it becomes apparent that the two dominant parties are in a virtual neck-and-neck struggle for control of parliament and formation of a new government.

Some analysts are already speculating of a possible 30-30 seat tie for the House of Representatives and even suggesting that ahead of October 16 the PNP and JLP should agree that the party with the most votes should perhaps be given the first opportunity to form the new government.

But neither the PNP nor JLP is in the mood for such a suggestion, believing as both do that close as it may be, there will be an outright winner.

The possibility of a hung parliament may very well remind Jamaicans of the dilemma that faced Trinidad and Tobago following last year's election that resulted in an 18-18 deadlock for the PNM and UNC.

It was a dilemma that effectively frustrated democratic, parliamentary governance and forced next month's election, the third in less than two years.

Now, as Patterson's PNP plans for an unprecedented fourth consecutive term in government and Seaga's JLP remains optimistic that this will not happen, Jamaican voters would be as anxious as voters in Trinidad and Tobago that there is no question of a hung parliament when their ballots are tallied and officially declared on the night of October 16.