"Kick 'em Jenny" volcano could be threat - Allsopp

By Courtney Jones
Stabroek News
July 20, 1999


Consulting engineer, Philip Allsopp, has said that discussions with officials of the Seismic Unit of the University of the West Indies have convinced him that Guyana is not entirely free from the threat of the active submarine volcano, "Kick 'em Jenny", which is located off the coast of Grenada.

Allsopp was speaking to a group of engineers at a luncheon sponsored by the Guyana Association of Professional Engineers (GAPE) at the Watercris Hotel on Friday.

The discourse was entitled "Kick 'em Jenny" - risk or disaster.

Since 1953 when scientists first started to monitor the submarine volcano about 9 km north of Grenada, there have been fears that an eruption of the volcano can generate massive waves called "tsunamis" and that if this is accompanied by an earthquake the consequences can be catastrophic for much of the Eastern Caribbean.

The general feeling is that Grenada could be inundated in a matter of five to ten minutes if the volcano explodes and this is followed by an earthquake. "Having discussed with one of the principals involved in the study of the volcano, I have come to the conclusion that we are not entirely free from threat", Allsopp told the gathering.

The prominent engineer said the feeling among scientific circles in the Caribbean is that giant waves generated by an earthquake following an eruption of the volcano will have most of their force expended on the islands in the Eastern Caribbean and that the north coast of Trinidad and Tobago will absorb most of the remaining force of the waves.

However, Allsopp said that his understanding from the official in Trinidad was that there would be some turbulence in the Gulf of Paria which separates Trinidad and Tobago from Venezuela and that it was not inconceivable that there would be some effect from waves even largely spent on the Guyana coastline.

"There are many uncertainties in this matter, but nobody could give any satisfactory answer as to if there is turbulence in the Gulf of Paria why that turbulence cannot extend to the Guyana coast," Allsopp said.

In fact, the engineer said that it was his understanding that waves generated from an earthquake as a result of the eruption of "Kick 'em Jenny" and spreading into the Atlantic Ocean through the gap between Grenada and Barbados would certainly affect the Guyana coastline and cause very serious damage.

Noting that since earthquakes are caused by faults in the earth's crust, and since the area around the volcano has faults, the likelihood of an earthquake following the eruption of the volcano is almost assured.

In a recent telephone interview with the Stabroek News, Dr Arrayal Mercado of the Department of Marine Sciences of the University of Puerto Rico, had said that Guyana was not under direct threat from the submarine volcano.

He had said that if an underwater eruption occurred, the waves would move from a point source in the ocean outwards in a sequential pattern with the force and speed of waves becoming less as these move from the volcano making it unlikely that distant places like Guyana would be affected.

But Mercado had also said that it was his belief that the Grenada volcano did not have the capacity to explode with sufficient intensity to cause major damage.

However, Allsopp told the assembled engineers that there has been at least one documented case where the volcano erupted sending a giant plume of water about 40 feet into the air. And recently Stabroek News understands, ships have been warned not to pass within a seventy-five-mile radius of Kick 'em Jenny.

Allsopp said a worst case scenario estimate from scientists in the region indicates that in the event of a major earthquake, the resulting "tsunamis" will take about two hours to reach the Guyana coastline and cause major damage to sea defences and infrastructure such as kokers and sluices.

But he noted that in many cases silt deposits will limit the danger to coastal areas but that the lack of silt deposits at the mouth of estuaries and rivers like the Berbice, Demerara and Essequibo will cause the waves to wreak havoc on riverain communities and areas.

"The seawalls will provide some protection but the waves would have a devastating effect on kokers and would certainly cause damage, if not destroy the harbour bridge altogether", Allsopp said in response to a question from an engineer.

He said that GAPE has already had discussions with Prime Minister, Sam Hinds, on the Kick 'em Jenny threat and a number of areas were looked at including the use of American Satellite technology as an early warning system.

Scientists monitoring the volcano have predicted that it is due for a massive explosion within ten years of the start of the 21st century


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