Guyana not under direct threat from 'Kick 'em Jenny' - scientist


Stabroek News
June 27, 1999


Guyana is not under direct threat from the submarine volcano 'Kick 'em Jenny', Dr Arrayal Mercado of the Department of Marine Sciences at the University of Puerto Rico, said.

'Kick 'em Jenny' is an active submarine volcano that exists about 9 km north of Grenada. It has engaged the interest of scientists since 1953. Peculiar to submerged volcanos is their ability to generate massive waves called tsunamis, which can travel at rapid speeds with the propensity to cause widespread destruction upon impact. Its effects can be worsened if the explosion is accompanied by an earthquake. Areas likely to be affected include islands in the Eastern Caribbean arc.

In a telephone interview with Stabroek News last week, Dr Mercado said that in the event of an underwater eruption waves would move from a point source in the ocean and move outward. This geometrical dispersion of waves would radiate outward in a sequential pattern depleting as the distance increases inferring that it was unlikely that distant places such as Guyana would be severely affected. Concerns had been raised in Guyana by the Guyana Association of Professional Engineers (GAPE) about the likely impact of a tsunami on Guyana's coastline. The likelihood of the tsunami escaping through the gap between Grenada and Barbados into the Atlantic Ocean was considered because it is said that these waves can travel at up to 800 km per hour and upon encountering shallow waters as off the Guyana coast, the height and the intensity tends to double. However, Dr Mercado stated that it was his belief that the volcano did not have the capability to explode with such intensity.

Meanwhile, consultant engineer Lloyd Lynch told this newspaper last week that scientists were last month able to source the necessary funding needed to effectively monitor the activities of 'Kick 'em Jenny'.

Lynch disclosed that a contract has been signed between the University of the West Indies (UWI) and the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) to the tune of US$170,000. The objective is to put in place a more advanced monitoring system that can detect restlessness or renewed activity at an early stage in the underwater volcano. Plans are also afoot to put in place a system that will serve to quickly warn residents of close regions in the event of an eruption.

The CDB grant will meet consultants' fees, the procurement of equipment, transportation, travel, report preparation and a sensitisation workshop to be held in Trinidad and Tobago and to involve representatives from the disaster preparedness agencies in the Caribbean. UWI will engage consultants to carry out the functions required under the project.

A portion of the funds would also be used to educate persons in the vulnerable areas in Grenada. This agreement has come about after increased concerns about the likelihood of a major eruption from the underwater volcano. Scientists who have monitored its activities have listed it as a prime candidate for a massive volcanic explosion early in the twenty-first century.

Scientists believe that the effects would be lessened if the explosion occurs above the surface of the water but are unable to determine the likelihood of this. If this were the case, only Grenada and its environs would be affected. On the other hand, if the explosion is to take place underwater and possibly accompanied by an earthquake, Grenada could be inundated within five to ten minutes, hence the need for an early warning system.

According to reports, in 1982 the summit of the volcano was 150m below the surface but it is said to be growing at 15m per year.

Lynch, however, said that for the past six months things have been blown out of proportion. He said that in the worst case scenario an eruption synonymous with large volcanos would only affect islands as far as Barbados.

Scientists, in conjunction with the Seismic Research Unit of UWI based in St Augustine, Trinidad, prepared a proposal in 1992 to source funding for a detailed investigation into the eruptive potential of the volcano and its likely effects on the Eastern Caribbean islands from the potential threat of tsunamis. At that time, the amount was propertied to be over US$590,000.

According to Lynch, through continuous lobbying combined with the efforts of Inter Oceanic Commission and the Government of Grenada, the US$170,000 was obtained from the Caribbean Development Bank.


A © page from:
Guyana: Land of Six Peoples