Predictions for next year
Stabroek News asked several prominent persons to hazard guesses on the outcome next year of crucial questions and their hopes for Guyana in 2000. Their responses follow. Questions: 1) Will there be a meeting between President Bharrat Jagdeo and PNC leader Desmond Hoyte in the next year? 2) Will the PPP elect Bharrat Jagdeo as their leader? 3) Will PNC leader Desmond Hoyte contest the next election? If not, who will be his successor? 4) Will there be an election in 2001 and will it be under a new constitution? 5) Will the Beal satellite launch deal go through? 6) Predict the value of the Guyana dollar in January 2001? 7) Will the Commissioner of Police Laurie Lewis step down in the coming year? 8) Will Brian Lara be retained as Captain of the West Indies for the series against England? Will Carl Hooper return to international cricket? 9) Will the Stabroek Market clock ever ring? 10) What is your hope for Guyana in the coming year in addition to the obvious one of unity?
Anande Trotman's response 1) I believe that any meeting of these leaders should be premised on genuine respect for each other, and their respective opinions and positions which should be reflective of their respective constituents in the Guyanese communities. This meeting should evolve out of constructive dialogue between the major parties, and the private sector, civil society, and supporters of the PPP and the PNC. 2) I envisage that President Bharrat Jagdeo will be the PPP's choice for their leader, as a result of the public response to him, and the energy he is displaying in dealing with national issues. 3) I think that Mr Hugh Desmond Hoyte will contest the next election, but should by then have identified a capable team of young leaders. 4) As a member of the Constitution Reform Commission and a citizen of Guyana, it is my absolute expectation that there would be an election in 2001, pursuant to commitments made by the major political parties. 5) I believe the Beal Satellite deal will go through, as the Government seems determined to do so despite concerns of Guyanese. However, I feel that issues of sovereignty, the environment and the disadvantages to our native peoples must be given highest priority in the negotiations of this deal, so that it would be a deal which all Guyanese can accept as good for the economy and nation. 6) Of course I am no economist, but I do not foresee any quantum leap of growth in the economy in the next year, and believe the economy will be challenged by international and local constraints. I anticipate that the dollar could vary between $185-$190 to the United States dollar. Of course, I wish otherwise. 7) I do not expect Commissioner Laurie Lewis to step down. There has been no known official dissatisfaction with his performance. However, I challenge the Commissioner to concretely address the growing public outcry about adverse policing, as he continues in the office of Commissioner. 8) I think that because of popular sentiment throughout the region Brian Lara will be at least temporarily relieved of his responsibilities of captaincy. He seems not suited at this time for continued leadership, and should be better utilised to concentrate on doing what we all know he can in fact do, bat. Carl Hooper now seems determined to return to regional and international cricket, but may have lost his chance for realising his ultimate potential by his own actions. His opportunity for return may lie only in the results of the current batsmen failing to score. 9) Perhaps the clock will ring if relocated to Switzerland, or London, England. 10) My hope for Guyana in the coming year is for the good and effective governance of our nation. Because of my work for the promotion of Women's Rights and Children's Rights, I hope that the implementation of the rights of these two groups is initiated, and the Human Rights of all Guyanese respected.
Robert George's response 1) No 2) Yes 3) Yes 4) Yes 5) Yes 6) G$200 - US$1 7) Yes 8) Yes. No 9) No 10) That professionals assert themselves in their various fields and reject political interference.
Eusi Kwayana's response 1) My answer is `not likely'. The hopeful idea of a meeting between the two has in fact almost lost its meaning. When the new president first made the offer to talk, it could have affected the climate. Mr Hoyte did not read it that way, or felt he would be yielding too much. The momentum is not there any more. Talk of elections will make a meeting even more unpopular. Worse yet, each of the two parties has leadership uncertainty and is claiming that the other is unstable. The only hope now is a national dialogue of all patriotic forces to discuss the well being of all Faiths, all ethnic and age groups, the genders, all classes and all factions, since Guyana needs them all and to agree on a line or lines of development. 2) The PPP is likely to resort to the power-sharing which was attempted in 1950-1955. In particular, it may solve its problems by separating party leadership from state leadership. This issue may become a non-issue. 3) This is an even more delicate matter. I cannot make a forecast. However, Mr Hoyte will not want to be told not to run. He will want to be in a position to say of himself. "This is my last election". 4) I fear, and I mean fear, that the two major parties are hell-bent on having an election by January 2001. If this is so, it will take place. They could not consent to any kind of power-sharing but can agree on an ethnic relations commission. We should think about that. One fatality in the election will be the process of making the new constitution. It will be rushed and the elections will be rushed. The foolish donor community will allow their money to be spent in this kind of crazy process because the country is independent, but will impose rules when it suits them. The country badly needs that dialogue mentioned in the answer to question one. Another fatality will be the election itself, as in 1997 when it was rushed. We cannot now regard as wholly non-political all the discoveries and non-discoveries of arms and ammunition making the news. 5) If Beal really wants the deal it will go through. In the face of such things our government is spineless and so is the society. The US government decides what technology can be transferred without its knowledge and consent and also decides what technology another country should receive without that country's knowledge and consent. 6) In January each year, each January meant more Guyana dollars for one US dollar. Bad expectations and predictions about money value often come true, because people act from fear or hope of what they expect. So let me not add to the fall-out! 7) If I answer any question about the Commissioner of Police, it may expose me to the risk of contempt of court charges. 8) I can answer neither of these direct questions. 9) If the Stabroek market clock ever rings, no one will hear it. 10) Is the need for unity really so obvious as the question assumes? Many people do not realise that our ethnic-political tension is also economic-financial tension and that while it is unattended and un-healed, human development will not take place. When people feel that they have stated their grievances, and got a hearing, there may be a better climate for unity than before, depending on how their complaints have been received by others. Without freedom to state and the good will to listen, unity can be a game. Next, I hope that in every place people will be encouraged to discuss their own economic development and that of the country; that people will realise that economic stagnation with unemployment is a danger. It fuels crime and just as bad it fuels loss of hope - alienation - people who feel endangered become a `danger' to themselves and others; I hope that we become more alive to the HIV-AIDS epidemic and keep doing something about it in every community and every street. That the World Bank and the IMF will learn that not their employees only are in the market, but others too; that they will learn to be ashamed of the substandard work that is done with their loans and get down to the bottom of it. I hope that all Faiths, all political parties and all who claim to love Guyana will see the need to work for a human environment in which the sexes can be equal and equally respected, and practically recognised, with equal weight in opinion forming and decision making. Youth can be respected as well as Age, and all of us know that in hurting others we are hurting ourselves, in a spiritual and a material sense. With elections coming, the opposite may happen, but I really hope that politics will become less of a rat-race; less like a war of destruction, less a parent of corruption, with more and more room for truth, clean transactions, good example, and a chance of bringing the people together behind some common purpose, of benefits to all who work, who are willing to work, or are unable to work normally.
Lincoln Lewis' response 1) The fact that such a meeting has become central to national discourse is a reflection of the absurd political times in which we live. 2) Since the death of Dr Cheddi Jagan the leadership arrangements within the PPP appear to have been altered. My guess is that the extant arrangements will remain unchanged for some time. 3) Mr Hoyte appears inclined to stay on as party leader. I expect that events between now and mid-2000 will determine whether he leads the PNC into the next elections. 4) This would appear to be everyone's expectation. Getting the prior arrangements right will be crucial to the deadline being met. 5) I suspect it will. 6) Tough one! Not much above what it is now ..... I hope. 7) That would be entirely out of character with the behaviour of high officials in our country. 8) I think he should be retained. Radical change in the West Indies team has been a catalyst for poor performance in recent times. I am unhappy over the manner in which Carl Hooper "walked out" on the team. If, as is the case, his experience is needed, it's the least he can do to make amends. 9) In the fullness of time, yes. 10) My hope is for more wealth-creation and, equally important, more equitable distribution of wealth. There are too many who have too little.
Kester Alves' response 1) I doubt it. You must remember that next year will be very much an election year and both parties will be in election mode. It is unlikely that Hoyte will want to bestow the ultimate legitimacy on Jagdeo which such a meeting would engender. Moreover, such a meeting would emphasise Hoyte's minority status, highlight his track record of two national electoral defeats, accentuate the generational difference and provide visible ammunition for his detractors within the PNC. What is to prevent the PPP coming up with a campaign poster with a slogan around a photograph of a Hoyte/Jagdeo meeting. Hoyte, of course, would be hoping that sometime during the year the Court will rule on the PNC's electoral petition and that this will support his oft repeated contention about the fraudulence of the 1997 poll. Interestingly, the persons who are probably hoping that a Hoyte/Jagdeo meeting does not take place are those in the PPP who still hold out some hope, however slim, of supplanting Jagdeo as the party's standard-bearer at the next general elections. 2) There is no certainty that Bharrat Jagdeo will lead the PPP into the next elections. The PPP has made it quite clear from day one that Jagdeo's inclusion in the A-Team was an electoral imperative and that his accession to the presidency was in keeping with their electoral commitment. The party has emphasised, and Jagdeo has repeated this, that he is not the leader of the party and that his endorsement to lead the PPP into the next general election was not automatic. Dr Roger Luncheon went out of his way publicly to not only underline this, but also to indicate who the other contenders were. But to Jagdeo's credit he has acquitted himself creditably and made it difficult for the other contenders to press their individual claims either directly or through proxies. Unless he stumbles badly between now and January 2001 I think the odds are very much in his favour to be the PPP's Presidential candidate in 2001; moreso if Mrs Jagan is still in a position of influence (which she still very much holds) within the deliberative bodies of the PPP. One question to be asked is will the PPP keep the civic component or has it outlived its political/electoral usefulness? 3) I have absolutely no doubt that Desmond Hoyte will contest the next election as leader of the PNC. The process which he himself has, quite admirably, set in train to identify his successor will culminate much too late in the day to give anyone the desired time to establish the requisite rapport with the electorate. What is most likely to happen (and should happen) is that it will identify a deputy leader who will be recognised as the heir apparent. Of the contenders I believe that Deryck Bernard is the ideal person for the job. Bernard has the experience, the intelligence, the public respect and is increasingly establishing himself among the party faithful. His relations with his successor in ministerial office, Dale Bisnauth, shows a capacity to maintain civil relations across the political divide. Importantly, he is untainted by the stigma of corruption and immorality while in office, a consideration which the PNC would be ill advised to overlook in its choice of successor to Hoyte. I do not believe that Hoyte leading the PNC into what will definitely be his last electoral battle will be bad for the party electorally. The party will be able to present the electorate with his experience and statesmanship while assuring of a generational change with the naming of a younger deputy leader and intended successor. 4) I believe that there will be an election in 2001, although not in January, and it will be under a new constitution. Both the PPP and the PNC seem to be in agreement on the major contours of a new constitution and I think that this will be approved by Parliament and referendum during the course of the year. Desmond Hoyte with his own continued leadership under debate (although not under threat) within the PNC will not want a national poll to be unduly delayed. After all he is not getting any younger and with each passing day the pressure on him to make a generational change becomes greater. And too, from a PNC perspective, the longer the elections are delayed the more time Jagdeo will have to entrench himself on the national consciousness. The PPP may try some foot dragging, but favouring its numerical advantage at the polls, may ultimately feel it is in the party's interest to seek a fresh mandate quickly. 5) The Beal deal will go through. I don't get the impression that there is any great objection to the deal as such. And there ought not to be. For any number of reasons, economic and strategic, it is good for Guyana. The only caveat seems to be the sale of such a large portion of Guyana's territory to a foreign entity. Government and the company will not be unmindful of these sentiments and will find some way to appease Guyanese sensitivities so the investment can go forward. Prime Minister Sam Hinds has already hinted at this, though I anxiously await to see what legal sleight of hand will be used to achieve a sale agreement "worded in such a way as to effectively reflect a lease arrangement". 6) The value of the Guyana dollar is very much a function of what's happening in the economy. I don't expect that there will be any significant return or indication of investor confidence until after the next general election. 2001 will definitely be a wait-and-see year for investors. Moreover, the forecast for some of our major exports in 2001 is far from reassuring. With some industries and companies already contracting their work force and a few thousand slated to be "voluntarily separated" from the public service the ranks of the unemployed will be swollen appreciably with a concomitant decline in consumer spending. Overseas family remittances will become much more crucial to the sustenance of many Guyanese. As such I see the Guyana dollar depreciating somewhat and inclining more towards, but not passing, G$200 to US$1. 7) I have a sneaking feeling that the time-frame for demitting office as Commissioner of Police which Laurie Lewis has set himself and which he would have agreed on with the political directorate will expire sometime in 2001. Laurie is an astute individual and he will know that to continue indefinitely beyond retirement in the top cop's job will create serious morale problems in the force - and even promotional bottlenecks - if it hasn't done so already. There are a lot of capable young officers who could fill the breach and these should not be kept on a short rein too much longer. Sometimes, even though personal competence is not in question a change of leadership and the new style and emphases which a change of guard oftimes brings is necessary and desirable. Both the powers that be and the Commissioner may decide that the new millennium is the right time for such an infusion in the upper echelons of the force. 8) Brian Lara will be retained as captain of the West Indies team for the simple reason that there are no credible alternatives around at the moment and for the foreseeable future. If Carl Hooper were still playing I would have answered differently. But there is no doubt that Lara's captaincy has seen West Indies cricket sink to its lowest nadir. He is probably not totally to blame, but he must share a lot of the blame. I am of the view, however, that while Lara will be retained the new management team (coach and manager) will be given greater authority over team selection, and even on-field decisions. The big question for WI cricket at the moment then is who will the Board select for these pivotal positions. Carl Hooper has expressed an interest in returning to international cricket. In the nature of the man he (quite exasperatingly) left the international scene abruptly and enigmatically. The manner of his departure certainly impacted negatively on the West Indies team as it prepared for the important World Cup in England and must have contributed to the team's dismal performance. He will have to re-establish the confidence of his team-mates and the West Indies Board as a necessary precondition to his return to international cricket. If he can do this, I believe his return to the WI team should be cemented sooner, rather than later. His captaincy of Guyana in the forthcoming Busta cup is a good first step. 9) Even if it rings who will hear it above the din of the Stabroek market square; so why bother. But I concede that it would be nice to hear its melodic chimes above the blare of mini bus horns, ear shattering dub music and the ritual clamour of the square's multifarious denizens. 10) I would hope that the stage will be set for new elections to be held within the agreed time-frame under universally accepted rules of the game which will preclude any post-election fall-out with the obvious consequences for our society and economy. And, of course, implied in all of this is a Good Year for Guyana and Guyanese.
Ravi Dev's response 1. Yes there will be and I hope that Bharrat Jagdeo will remember that he is the President and not Desmond Hoyte. 2. Bharrat Jagdeo will be selected to lead the PPP in the upcoming general elections. Mrs. Janet Jagan will remain leader of the PPP. 3. Desmond Hoyte will remain leader of the PNC, and all his creatures, at the next elections. 4. There will be general elections before 2001 under a cut and paste Constitution and the Herdmanston Accord. 5. The Beal deal will be sealed. 6. Optimistically, G$140 to US$1. 7. Police Commissioner Laurie Lewis will not step down in the next year or any future year. Eventually Mr. Laurie Lewis will go with his boots on. 8. The West Indian selectors will have to retain Brian Lara. Who else is there. Since Carl Hooper will be playing for Guyana against the West Indian Islands he will then be playing international cricket. 9. Not in this Millennium. Perhaps in the next. 10. It is my hope that our political leaders will at last address the racial/ethnic orientation in politics by including in the new Constitution rules that will encourage real multi party politics and the politics of alliances in Guyana.
Gerry Gouveia's response 1. It is my hope that they meet. I strongly believe that the importance of such a meeting will be the optimism it will spread among our people. The first meeting should be a cordial one with no heavy political agenda, but more of a symbolic nature for the beginning of a series of meetings that should follow. Subsequent meetings should be concerned with issues relating to the development of the country, and an inclusive system of Government to manage the affairs of our dear land of Guyana. It is clear that the PPP will have to urgently address the question of appointing a representative in accordance with the Herdmanston Accord, to hold discussions with Mr. Hoyte. This person must be given a full mandate to speak on behalf of the Party. 2. Bharrat Jagdeo is a very intelligent young man, and since his accession to the Office of President has been able to win the admiration of a wide cross-section of the Guyanese people, and more particularly the Private Sector. I think it would be useful for the PPP to listen, look and respond to signals coming from the masses of the Guyanese people. 3. Mr. Hoyte will contest the next election as leader of his party. If he wins the election he will hold on until a successor is found possibly within one year. If he loses he will retire from politics. 4. There will be an election in 2001 with changes in the electoral process. 5. The Beal deal will go through. This project will be of tremendous benefit to Guyana. We will cease to be known internationally as the former home of the infamous Jim Jones. 6. I predict it will go down to 173 to 1, and this would be based on the spaceport becoming a reality, and the very positive marketing efforts by President Bharrat Jagdeo internationally. 7. Mr. Lewis has rendered yeoman service in the Security Services of this country, and should he decide to step down his expertise should be utilised in an advisory capacity within his area of competence. 8. Brian Lara will be retained as Captain, simply because there is no logical successor. Carl Hooper will return to International Cricket, mainly because the West Indies has not yet found a replacement for him, which is evident in their recent performance in the just concluded Test Series. 9. The Stabroek Market clock will ring again if the money could be raised to pay the Smithsonian Institute to effect the necessary repairs. 10. I am extremely optimistic about the future of Guyana if we could keep our political differences in perspective as well as clamp down on crime, and follow through on the Public Sector Reform, thereby making the Public Sector the "Engine of Change", so that the Private Sector could then truly be the "Engine of Growth".
Toussaint Boyce's response 1) Outside of the informal meetings there will be no formal meeting of substance between President Bharrat Jagdeo and Desmond Hoyte in the year 2000. There may be a meeting or some open forum for the expression of their views but without tangible results of significant benefit to the people. 2) Yes. President Jagdeo will eventually find favour with the powers that be in the PPP and emerge as their leader. Whether he will win the elections as their leader is another matter. 3) Yes. Desmond Hoyte will contest the next election but not alone. He will contest the election on a team name and not on his own name. His voice will be heard along with those of two prominent successors being groomed. His chosen successor will shock many but it will turn out to be a good choice. 4) Yes. There will be a very calm election in 2001 under a new constitution. 5) Under much protests the Beal deal will go through, much to the detriment of the PPP at the next election. Extensive criticism of it will be an unwelcome distraction for them at the next polls, more specifically concerning unproven rumours of secretive dealing. 6) Conservatively, the value of the Guyana dollar will be 202:1 in 2001. 7) Yes. The Commissioner will step down quite peacefully in the coming year with his integrity intact. 8) Under probation Brian Lara will be retained as Captain of the West Indies Cricket Team. Carl Hooper will make a successful return to international cricket though he will not be there for long. 9) The Stabroek Market Clock will never ring. 10) My hope for Guyana in the coming year is a moral and spiritual upswing, economic stability, revaluation of the Guyana dollar, peaceful coexistence, less crime and less road fatalities and freedom from natural disasters.
Shaun McGrath's response 1) Yes 2) No 3) Yes 4) No 5) Yes 6) 170:1 7) No 8) No, No 9) No 10) Prosperity
Christopher Ram's response 1) No. The Herdmanston Accord is between the leaders of the PPP and the PNC. Mr Hoyte's legalistic mind will not allow him the flexibility to meet, under the Accord, with anyone but the leader of the PPP. 2) No. The present arrangement represents a form of separation of power which is both desirable and convenient in the context of the PPP. 3) Yes. There is not enough time for the Party to discuss the ramifications of a change at this stage, identify potential leaders, hold consultations among stakeholders including those abroad and still leave time for the new leader to establish credibility and provide a formidable electoral challenge to the PPP. The irony is that under Mr Hoyte defeat is a virtual certainty in the forthcoming elections. 4) Regrettably yes. Whilst a number of the excesses of the 1980 Constitution have been removed, we have not made full use of the opportunity to frame a constitution addressing the issues and needs of the country. Elections will continue to be determined by racial demographics rather than by policies and personalities. 5) Yes. Guyana badly needs investments and even the critics of the Beal deal concede that they have no objections in principle to the project. The problem is that it is difficult to criticise a project the details of which one can only speculate about. 6) I prefer not to speculate on the currency. 7) No. The Commissioner is an instinctive survivor who has no obvious successor. The Government will persuade him to stay on at least until after the general elections. 8) Yes. With no obvious alternative the selectors are unlikely to play Jimmy Adams for his leadership skills only as England did with Mike Brearley in the eighties. Carl Hooper will not return to test cricket. 9) No. Unless we are hoping for a reverse Y2K miracle! 10) That we can get out of the old paradigm and leapfrog into the 21st century. We are still not fully into the 20th.
C.N. Sharma's response 1) No 2) Yes 3) Yes 4) Yes 5) Yes 6) $200 - US$1 7) Yes 8) Yes, Yes 9) Never 10) That we will truly see ourselves as Guyanese regardless of race.
Khemraj Ramjattan's response 1) Yes ... if Mr Hoyte finds the time to do so. He will be very busy this year in my expectation. 2) The party will be imperilled, internally and from the outside, if it does not elect Bharrat as leader. There is additionally an advantage of incumbency. The young man, to use a cricketing analogy, can only run himself out. What he has said and done thus far as President indicates to me that none of the other aspirants can have him bowled, stumped or caught. They just can't out him anymore. In any event, it would be extremely difficult for any of these contenders to honestly point out what they would have done differently had they been President. I thus foresee him being leader and the Party's Presidential candidate for the 2001 elections. I would prefer his election as leader to be done at the more democratic and popular congress, rather than the in-house internal committee level. 3) The little I know of Desmond Hoyte tells me that he will contest third time around as the PNC's Presidential candidate in 2001. 4) Undoubtedly there must be a promulgation of a new constitution, and thereafter an election in 2001. The consequences of these not occurring will be horrible for my country and countrymen. 5) Little do the Guyanese people know that the player to effectuate this deal to a finality is neither the Guyana Government nor Beal Aerospace. It ultimately rests with the State Department of the USA. I have a hunch that the State Department will frustrate this deal from happening to a time around or just after the 2001 elections. 6) It may settle around the G$200 to US$1 range in 2001. 7) My views on Laurie Lewis are pretty well known. He should have gone a long time ago. But then again when you have a Rasputinian effect on certain Czars and Czarina in high places you will be the beneficiary of an extended life. Laurie is too clever a Commissioner to let year 2000 be his finale. 8) Yes, Brian Lara will be captain. He simply has no competitor. And for all his faults he remains the most articulate, committed and talented of the lot we have. The signs are there that Carl may make a re-entry into international cricket. This will obviously remedy the madness of his unreasonably arbitrary exit. West Indies need him now more than ever. 9) I am and will remain a supreme optimist .... Yes! The Stabroek Market clock will ring but only when we in the City would have gotten over individual clocks ringing. 10) An honest objective confrontation of the issues of corruption and incompetence within Government - nationally, regionally, locally and within every bureaucracy. The pruning of dead woods within government is a necessary revitalisation process. It also brings on renewed confidence of the system in the minds of the public. The buck must stop at nothing to ensure this cleansing process, out of which will arise more honesty and integrity and reason in public affairs.
Maria Nadir's response 1) No. My opinion is that if Hoyte meets with Jagdeo it will mean that he has accepted this government as the legitimate government. 2) Strong possibility. He certainly has been campaigning for this position to demonstrate that he has mass support. 3) Yes. He has a problem with relinquishing leadership. He has a point to prove, he still feels that he could win an election. 4) I do not feel that we would have a new constitution with any significant changes before year 2001. We could have an election. 5) Beal will go through. The PPP is in government and will get their way. All governments do until they are voted out. 6) By 2001 the dollar will reach $220 to the $US. GP&L would be a main contributor to this. 7) No. He like Hoyte and the PPP is immune to critics. The people can talk all they want, but the commissioner will have his way. 8) Yes. The selectors have no guts to challenge Lara. They are biased against Guyanese. If I were Hooper I would not come back. 9) No. Unless we have a new team in town hall. A team that will put the public first and before their own partisan interests. 10) My hope is for the Guyanese people themselves to desire unity. The politicians cannot ordain unity. It has to flow from the hearts of men and women of all races and classes. My hope is also that President Jagdeo and the PPP would wake up from their seven-year sleep and look, listen and understand that Guyana is going through an economic crisis. Unless this is attacked immediately many businesses will go belly-up. Banks will become the largest landlords. Migration, crime and corruption will increase. My advice is to put the electorate first. My advice to the Guyanese public is that you should pay more attention to what is happening to your country and get involved. We must be able to say to the politicians "do your job or go".
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