Signals on Trinidad, Guyana elections
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Signals on Trinidad, Guyana elections
- Optimism plus politickingBy Rickey Singh
Guyana Chronicle
April 16, 2000
FOR ALL the real and imagined problems they face, the incumbent parties in both Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana were in a rather upbeat mood last week about new general elections that could be held in or before November in the twin island state, and by mid-January to March 2000 in Guyana.
In the case of Trinidad and Tobago, the published results of the latest public opinion poll by Selwyn Ryan's St. Augustine Research Associates (SARA) would have served to reinforce the oft-repeated claims within recent times by Prime Minister Basdeo Panday that his ruling United National Congress (UNC) would secure a second term at new elections.
Prior to Sunday's publication of the poll results, the UNC had convincingly retained, as expected, its seat at the Mayaro/Rio Claro Regional Council by-election with a 60 per cent voter response. An evidently pleased Panday said it was a test run for the forthcoming general elections which could be held before November.
But the Prime Minister, rated as quite a crafty politician, has reacted cautiously in public to the results of the SARA poll which forecast a clear victory for the UNC should the elections be held soon.
Privately, he is said to be heartened by the forecast of a swing of some 14 per cent in Afro-Trinidadian electoral support for his UNC which, at the 1995 elections, had tied with the main opposition People's National Movement (PNM) with 17 seats each, resulting in the formation of a coalition with the National Alliance for Reconstruction (NAR).
There is, however, some intriguing political arithmetic in the SARA poll. For instance, in response to which party they would like to be in control of the government, 43 per cent favoured the UNC to 27 per cent for the PNM.
Also, while the poll gives the UNC some 81 per cent of its traditional Indo-Trinidadian electoral support and at least 14 per cent of Afro-Trinidadian swing vote, it at the same time reported that overall, 43 per cent of potential voters favoured a second term for the incumbent and 42 per cent feel it was time for a change: A one per cent difference.
In Guyana
So much for opinion poll results and the mood in Trinidad and Tobago, where the PNM's Patrick Manning said his party realised that there was "a lot of work to do to avoid being saddled again by the UNC". Of course, the PNM, like the opposition People's National Congress (PNC) in Guyana, has been accustomed to being "saddled" with successive governments.
The crucial difference is that the PNM's victories have always been based on free and fair elections in contrast to rigged elections, as a norm, under PNC rule right up to 1992 when it was defeated by the People's Progressive Party (PPP)/Civic with the return of electoral democracy.
And while Trinidadians were analysing the SARA poll results, the PPP/Civic's leader of government business in parliament, Reepu Daman Persaud, speaking during the recent budget debate, was exuding confidence of a return to power at coming elections.
Not only will elections be held by January next year, or possibly earlier, he said but boasted that there will be "licks like peas" for the PNC, even in some of its traditional strongholds, like the bauxite mining town of Linden, as well as in the Amerindian areas.
Understandably, the PNC, whose 72-year-old leader, Desmond Hoyte, will be facing the PPP/Civic's 37-year-old Bharrat Jagdeo, President of the Republic, continues to talk as if he is a President-in-waiting, and, therefore, not amused by Persaud's optimism.
Electoral System
The PPP's confidence, as reflected by Persaud, on being returned to power for a successive third term, is based on the awareness of its proven success in garnering more voter support across ethnic lines - comparatively insignificant as it may be in a consistent pattern of ethnic voting - than the PNC.
There is, of course, its record of achievements over an eight-year period to which it will be pointing as the campaign gains momentum in the months ahead.
A primary concern in changing, in 1964, Guyana's electoral system from the first-past-the-post model, as exists throughout the anglophone Caribbean, was to bring about the electoral defeat of the PPP. But with the restoration of electoral democracy after years of rigged elections from 1968, the PPP once again established its resilience to win outright victories even under the existing system of proportional representation.
Now, there is a move to introduce an "element" of geographical representativeness", as recommended to the parliamentary select committee dealing with constitutional reform.
And an American academic, Andrew Reynolds, whose services were secured by the National Democratic Instititute (NDI), has strangely gone much further in proposing "substantive" geographical representativeness.
This remains a contentious issue and I doubt whether the proposed Reynolds formula would eventually gain acceptance since a two-thirds majority in parliament is required to so amend the constitution.
The final draft product of the revised constitution was expected to be subjected to a national referendum before new elections. Interestingly, neither the PPP/Civic nor the PNC considers such a referendum necessary.
Elections Commission
At the December 1997 elections, the PPP/Civic although without the leadership of its founder-leader, the legendary Cheddi Jagan who died in March of that year, won the country's second free and fair elections since 1968 by securing 55.3 per cent of the valid votes with an official voter turnout of some 88 per cent.
Amid concerns by sections of the local media, civic organisations and some small parties whether it is at all realistic to prepare for new elections by January 17, 2001, in order to confirm to a CARICOM-brokered `Herdmanston Accord', the PNC leader is currently in the process of determining his list of six choices for an independent Chairman of the Elections Commission.
Known as the `Carter forumula' - based on an accepted proposal by former US President Jimmy Carter for the 1992 elections - six names are submitted by the Opposition Leader, presumably after consultation with other opposition parties and civic organisations, to the President at least one of whom must be accepted by him.
If not, a new list of names must be submitted until someone regarded to be independent and competent is chosen. It is relevant to note that one of the nominees of the opposition for the December 1997 elections, the well-known lawyer Doodnauth Singh, now much vilified by the PNC and its leader, was the chosen Chairman of the 1997 seven-member Elections Commission on which the governing and opposition parties have equal representation of three members each.
One of the more interesting and amusing developments of the constitutional changes pursued to enable the creation of a new Elections Commission in preparation for new elections, is the amendment to replace the title of `Minority Party Leader' with that of `Opposition Leader'.
The 'Minority' Title
This bit of constitutional manoeuvring, that immediately appeals to the minority party, the PNC, is indeed amusing. For it was the PNC, with the late Forbes Burnham as President and Hoyte as a Vice-President and Prime Minister, that had introduced this concept in the 1980 constitution that emerged after the well-documented massively rigged referendum of 1978.
The intention was to embarrass the PPP, traditionally regarded as the majority party of Guyana, and its leader, Cheddi Jagan who was then the constitutional Opposition Leader. Now the PNC and Hoyte have shown their suffering in having to live through two elections with that title of 'Minority Party Leader'.
The PPP/Civic, which has already given up two of its five-year elected terms so that elections can take place by January 2000, and whose then President, Janet Jagan, had to approve legislation to facilitate Hoyte and his parliamentary colleagues to occupy their parliament seats they had forfeited by an extended boycott, now agrees also to facilitate the PNC to revert back to the concept of `Opposition Leader'.
This kind of political flexibility, maturity or enlightened political manoeuverings, whatever the perspective, itself speaks of the confidence of the PPP/Civic as it prepares for the next round in elections politics.
The pity, however, that in agreeing to this kind of constitutional dressing, the PPP/Civic and the PNC did not recognise the value of establishing a permanent Elections Commission as exists in other CARICOM states.
The PPP/Civic's skilful Information Minister and Chairman of the Oversight Committee on constitutional reform, Moses Nagamootoo, had, in one of his characteristic ramrod-style presentations during the recent budget debate, pointed to what he described as a "two-headed monster" that on one hand,insists on new elections by January 17, 2001, (PNC) and, on the other, postponement of such elections with an interim government to make proper arrangements for the elections (WPA).
Desirable as it may be for postponing the elections to ensure that all relevant and effective machinery and arrangements are in place for new elections, there will be no such consideration by the PPP/Civic, having already sacrificed two of its elected five-year terms, and while the PNC remains unrepentant and hostile.
Hoyte himself, not unmindful of those within the PNC who may have their own notions about the kind of leadership they would like for the party at this stage, is simply anxious that the elections take place with him as the party's presidential candidate.
The PPP/Civic seems equally anxious to oblige, not just for Hoyte to now be styled `Opposition Leader', as well as whoever comes after him at future elections, but that the arrangements for the 2001 elections proceed.
Who will be the victors and losers in the coming "licks like peas" campaign? Well, as the Trinidadian Prime Minister, Panday, has said in relation to the SARA poll results: "Elections are won on elections day between six o'clock in the morning and six o'clock in the evening".
Trinidadians have been alerted to a possible snap poll. Guyanese would be waiting for some more time. But the sound of the elections bell can already be heard in the distance in both countries.
